Some Thoughts On Pep's Next Contract
There been a lot of speculation about Pep’s future in the last few days, sparked by his comments in the post-match press conference on Sunday. This is what he said:
“Last year, after Istanbul, I said ‘it’s over, there’s nothing left’.
But I have a contract and I start to think ‘no one has done four in a row, why don't we try? And now I feel it’s done, so what next?
Now I don't know what exactly the motivation is because it's difficult to find it when everything is done.”
I wrote a piece on the subject back in September, When Will Pep Leave? My view, based on Marti Perarnau’s 2014 book Pep Confidential, and Pol Ballus and Lu Martin’s more recent Pep’s City, is that he’ll only leave when he feels unable to improve the side, or if he’s struggling with the stresses of the job.
As the whole set up at City is geared towards keeping Pep happy, it seems unlikely that the latter will become an issue. And considering the ages of City’s key players, and the transfer funds likely available, there certainly appears room for Pep to improve the side.
I also can’t see Pep leaving before the 23-year-old Foden has reached his full potential, as well as Haaland (23), Gvardiol (22) and Doku (21). With Rodri still just 27, and our four centre halves all under 30, we’re only a world-class replacement for De Bruyne and Walker away from a really astonishing side.
So my guess is that Pep’s comments were more about his upcoming contract talks. He is a master psychologist, after all.
The 52-year-old signed a two-year contract extension in November 2022, keeping him at City until the end of the 2024/25 season. He’d signed a two-year extension in November 2020, and also in 2018, so my guess is we may well see another two-year extension announced around November.
What is more certain, Guardiola’s strong financial ties with City Football Group (CFG) will be key to the negotiations. Pep has earned around £124million at City since his arrival in 2016 (he was paid a reported £15.2m a year initially, which rose to £20m a year in 2020). But his business dealings with CFG could end up being worth a lot more than that.
In August 2017 Pep’s agent, his brother Pere Guardiola, acquired a 44.3% stake in Catalan club Girona. CFG also acquired 44.3%. Pere Guardiola’s stake was reduced to 16% in 2020, in a deal that saw him become the club's chairman. But Girona’s rapid rise, qualifying for the Champions League this season a year after being promoted to La Liga, has turned it into a potential goldmine.
The only other league club in Catalonia is Espanyol in Barcelona, who are currently in the Spanish Second Divison. Should Girona establish themselves as the region’s second club—and a regular Champions League qualifier— they could be end up being worth as much as Madrid’s second club, Atletico, who are currently valued at $1.5billion (£1.2B) by Forbes Magazine.
That would value Guardiola’s 16% stake at £192m. And because Girona FC is an Abu Dhabi investment, in a decade or two it could be worth a whole lot more than that. Backed by the emirate’s collossal financial and technological resourses, who’s to say Girona won’t end up with a similar valuation to Real ($6.1B) or Barcelona $5.5B)?
It might seem unlikely now, but the idea that City would one day become a richer club than United was once laughed at.
Pep has now spent twice as many seasons at City than at Barcelona, where he was manager between 2008 and 2012. He’s also spent more time at City than at his previous clubs combined (he managed Bayern Munich from 2013 to 2016).
Only Pep will know when it’s time for him to move on (my guess is it will be once Foden has reached his peak). But whatever his future, it seems likely it will be with both CFG and Abu Dhabi.
Pep is now more than a football manager. He is a global brand, one associated with the quest for perfection and fulfilling your dreams. And in that respect, his recent promotion of Abu Dhabi’s Yas golf resort perhaps points to his life after Man City.
It’s been claimed that a role at New York City FC, along with De Bruyne, is in the offing. A position as Head of Football for the City Group seems more likely, alongside a role promoting Abu Dhabi.
But whatever his long-term future I suspect his choices will, at least in part, come down to the percentages being offered.
Football is a business, after all.
Part Twelve of my serialization, When City Fell Foul of Edwardian Financial Fair Play, will now be published on Saturday 25th May. Apologies for the delay.
Part One, The Men Who Plotted City's Downfall, can be found here.
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The problem football journalists have nowadays is that they've been shut out of the game's inner circles. There was a time when reporters often knew what was going on at a club before the chairman did. Now they're reduced to speculating like the rest of us, and pushing daft narratives like the Klopp one.
Definitely possible re: Alonso, but I'm going to be ignoring any speculation from now on. I doubt even Pep knows for sure what he'll be doing in a year's time.
Excellent insight as always, I attended a city supporters meeting last week and also in attendance was a well known football writer with which I still think is the UK's second biggest selling daily . He is quite fair usually towards city and he was of the opinion that next season could well be peps last at city . He also stated that unlike a certain turkey teethed under achieving German he would definitely be looking to go out on an all time high ,and would be motivating his players to do likewise!! The proof of the pudding and all that ....as for his successor ,is it just possible that Alonso didn't take the Liverpool job because he knew there would be a bigger and better job on offer the following summer?